Even after seeing and analyzing all the nominated films, I still have little faith in my predictions. A few of these categories are no brainers, but many remain toss-ups. There have been rule changes and date changes galore, so expect some new precedents to be set Sunday night. This is merely for fun, so feel free to post your own picks in the comments and you can tease me Monday morning. Also, if you are looking for the best awards and festival coverage around, I highly recommend checking out Kris Tapley and Guy Lodge over at In Contention, which is now part of HitFix. Here are my picks:
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Another movie about how awesome Hollywood is (See The Artist) has all the momentum. Argo winning or losing would break all kinds of records, but I think it’s sewn up at this point.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Should Win: Michael Haneke, Amour
With no Affleck this category could go to anyone. I’m going with Lee for three reasons. Everyone likes the guy, I can’t see Lincoln getting Director but not Picture, and he’s the star of his movie.
BEST ACTOR
Will and Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Great is great. It’s as simple as that.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Should Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
I’m probably wrong here. Lawrence is the IT girl right now, but her performance is not nearly as dramatically powerful as Riva’s. Marion Cotillard won for La Vie En Rose, so why not Riva?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Should Win: Amy Adams, The Master
People who hate the movie still love Hathaway in it. She has the ultimate Oscar clip.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
This category is ridiculous. Anyone could win. I’m going with Waltz simply because his is the most affable and sizable role. My should is a reflection on Waltz and Hoffman being in the wrong category.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Should Win: ParaNorman
Still an open race, but I think Ralph is the biggest crowd-pleaser so I’m going with that.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Will and Should Win: Amour
Also nominated for Picture and more, I think they like this one.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Django Unchained
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Another tough race, so I’m just going to stick with the crowd-pleasers.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Lincoln
Argo goodwill looks to sweep this category up ahead of the others.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will and Should Win: Anna Karenina
Mirror Mirror is close, but this has been a done deal since the trailer premiered.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will and Should Win: Skyfall
It’s the only good song nominated and it’s from one of the year’s biggest blockbusters.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Lincoln
Pi is the most diverse of the group and carries huge portions of the film. A lot of better scores not even nominated.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should Win: How to Survive a Plague
Like Argo, another crowd-pleaser is going to steamroll over better and more important films.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Flip a coin. I think this crowd liked Les Mis more and it fits with recent wins that correlated with an acting win (The Iron Lady, La Vie En Rose). The best wasn’t nominated.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will and Should Win: Anna Karenina
The movie is a showcase of design. The film’s conceit is all about sets moving, changing, and being on display.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
It’s another notch for the Argo express.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Life of Pi
Either could win and I wouldn’t really mind. I picked Skyfall because Deakins was the star of the movie.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
This one is a very tough call. I’m going with MOST sound editing. Pi had tons of animals to bring to life and an entire ocean of sound.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: Life of Pi
The sound categories haven’t split in awhile but Les Mis built its marketing campaign around the sound mixing and I think people bought in.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will and Should Win: Life of Pi
It’s one of the easiest picks of the night. It’s the only Best Picture Nominee in the group and it deserves it.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Paperman
Should Win: Adam and Dog
The rules for voting changed this year, so I think the nominee with the highest profile will take it.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Curfew
Should Win: Death of a Shadow
With the best being too strange (like Tuba Atlantic last year), I’m going with the only film in the English language.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will and Should Win: Open Heart
In a race between a homeless kid, old people, breast cancer, more homeless people, and kids who need heart surgery, I’m not picking against the 6-year-old with her chest split open.
Don’t forget to post your picks. If you’re looking for a good printable ballot, I like using Moviefone’s.
Shooting the Script 
I think Lincoln will win Best Picture. But Argo should win.
I think Chastain will win. ZDT has to win something