Bryan’s 2014 Oscar Predictions

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Best Picture is closer than it has been in years, and at the same time many categories have been sewn up since October. I didn’t get around to as many reviews as I have in the past (still blaming the baby), and I never did manage to see Saving Mr. Banks, The Book Thief, or Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. But I have seen the rest of the nominees (I’ll be seeing The Wind Rises on Saturday). This means my predictions will be jaded but perhaps still useful. This is merely for fun, so feel free to post your own picks in the comments and you can tease me for my shoddy guesswork as the night progresses. Once again, if you are looking for the best awards and festival coverage around, I highly recommend checking out Kris Tapley and Guy Lodge over at HitFix. Here are my picks:

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave

It’s going to be close. I still don’t think enough people will give Slave its due. Either way a really great film will be walking away with the top prize.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Should Win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Part of why I’m picking Gravity for picture. I don’t see them giving it one and not the other.

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Mathew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

I love McConaughey, even in a so-so movie. But I would rank Dallas at the bottom of his last 8 roles. However, voters are seeing his best performance every Sunday on True Detective. Anti-Norbit is real my friends.

BEST ACTRESS

Will and Should Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Like Daniel Day-Lewis last year, great is great and there’s no use fighting it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will and Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Lawrence is the potential spoiler but I really can’t see them giving her 2 undeserved Oscars in a row.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will and Should Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Leto’s was the real transformational performance from this mediocre movie. Still sad about the lack of Franco.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Frozen

Should Win: The Wind Rises (One would assume, I’ll find out soon enough)

Frozen is still filling theaters 4 months after release. It has become too big to be challenged by anything else.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Will Win: The Hunt

Should Win: ?

Complete toss up. I mostly liked all of them but have mixed feelings all around. The Great Beauty and The Missing Picture have the most ambition but how can you compare the two? I’m picking The Hunt to win because it is the least challenging. The plot is linear and there’s a recognizable star.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will and Should Win: Her

If Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Lost in Translation, and Almost Famous can win this against tough competition, I expect Her to do the same.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street

I prefer Wolf by just a hair but the assumed Best Picture runner-up should win a few consolation prizes.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will and Should Win: The Great Gatsby

History favors more in this category, and more happens to be better in this case.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will and Should Win: Frozen

A showstopper in a blockbuster, we haven’t had one of those in a long while.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will and Should Win: Gravity

A weak category but one standout leans hard on its music.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Will and Should Win: The Act of Killing

Because anything else would be a Hoop Dreams-like embarrassment.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club

Should Win: Bad Grandpa

It’s the Best Picture nominee of the bunch and no one wants to give The Lone Ranger or Bad Grandpa an Oscar.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: The Great Gatsby

Should Win: Her

I can actually see any of the nominees winning. I’m falling back on excess.

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Captain Phillips

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave

Picking Gravity for editing by non-editing seems too sophisticated for this bunch. The Bourne Ultimatum beat No Country For Old Men six years ago, I’m betting on a similar outcome.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will and Should Win: Gravity

Digital or not, Lubezski did something special.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will and Should Win: Gravity

The technical achievement of the year should have an easy sweep of these categories.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will and Will Win: Gravity

See Sound Editing.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will and Should Win: Gravity

They didn’t hand out this award already?

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: Mr. Hublot

Should Win: Feral

The most non-threatening vanilla film is how I’m picking this one. Get a Horse! has exposure but they don’t go for the big Disney choice that often and they just did last year.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will and Should Win: Just Before Losing Everything

The Voorman Problem has stars and is in English and Helium is sickly sweet, but I’m going with my heart on this one. I expect to be terribly wrong.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will and Should Win: The Lady in Number 6

Lady is the most professional looking of the bunch and I expect that to put it over.

Don’t forget to post your picks. If you’re looking for a good printable ballot, I like using Moviefone’s.

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One response to “Bryan’s 2014 Oscar Predictions

  1. Pingback: Oscar Predictions from Hollywood Insiders

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